Scenarios

SSP1SSP2SSP3SSP4SSP5
RCP8.5Unspecified Pacific
no mitigation, fragmented world, reactive NZ (8.5-3-A)
RCP6.0Homo Economicus
global growth with little mitigation, NZ does minimum but adapts smartly (6.0-5-D)
RCP4.5Kicking, screamingClean Leader
fragmented world that mitigates through power blocks, NZ dragged along (4.5-3-A) global growth, significant mitigation, NZ leads, strategically exploits competitive advantage (4.5-5-F)
RCP2.6100% SmartTechno-garden
global cohesive sustainability focused world with ambitious mitigation, with NZ riding front wave (2.6-1-F) global ambitious mitigation in a cohesive rich world focused on economic gain, NZ keeps economic focus (2.6-5-B)

What are scenarios?

Plausible stories of the future.

Why use scenarios?

Scenarios provide a coherent and consistent basis to frame, explore and discuss the implications of the future for decision making.

How are scenarios relevant to NZ?

We are developing a set of globally-linked, NZ-focused scenarios to aid exploration of the implications of possible futures for NZ decision making with differing degrees of climate change and development.

Global Scenario Architecture

There are three elements that make up the Global Scenario Architecture.  These are:

What Might Go In a Scenario?

Demographics • Population total and age structure
• Urban and rural population
Economic Development • Global and regional GDP and trends in productivity
• Regional, national and sub-national distribution of GDP
• Share of population in extreme poverty
• Nature of international trade
• Sectoral structure of national economies, incl share of agriculture and agricultural land productivity
Welfare • Human development including access to public health and health care infrastructure
• Educational attainment
Environment • Air, water, soil quality
• Ecosystem functioning
Resources • Fossil fuel resources and renewable energy potentials
• Other resources such as phosphates, fresh water, etc
Institutions • Existence, type and effectiveness of national/regional/global institutions
• Degree of participation / rule of law
Technology • Type (slow, rapid, transformational...) and direction (environmental, efficiency, productivity...)
• Innovation in specific sectors
World Views • Life styles (including diets)
• Societal tension
Policies • Non-climate development strategies, urban planning and transportation policies, energy security policies, and environmental policies, etc

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