What are scenarios?
Plausible stories of the future.
Why use scenarios?
Scenarios provide a coherent and consistent basis to frame, explore and discuss the implications of the future for decision making.
How are scenarios relevant to NZ?
We are developing a set of globally-linked, NZ-focused scenarios to aid exploration of the implications of possible futures for NZ decision making with differing degrees of climate change and development.
Global Scenario Architecture
There are three elements that make up the Global Scenario Architecture. These are:
- Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) globally
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) globally
- Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) about climate change